Synopsis for Tonight's Severe Weather

Kansas City MO [SPC] convective outlook, prepared on the 23rd at 10:31am CST (1631Z). Day 1 convective outlook. National Weather Service storm prediction center Norman Oklahoma. 4:31am CST (1031Z) AM {CST, coast} Thursday February 23 2:12pm CST (2012Z). Valid the 23rd at 10:30am CST (1630Z) - the 24th at 6:00am CST (1200Z). There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over a parts of the lower Ohio. Valley and MIDSOUTH . Lower Ohio valley . A belt of strong mid level flow is in place across the northern half of. The Continental U.S. with several low amplitude short wave impulses embedded. Within this stream . most substantial disturbance appears to be. Moving across central high plains this morning and will lead to modest. Trough amplification over the midwest through this evening . at the. Surface Low pressure moving into Missouri at this time will continue to deepen. Today {as, altostratus} the aforementioned trough LENDS large scale support for. Deep - layer ascent . the low is forecast to track east along a. Well - defined warm front to near western IND by this evening And near. Lake Erie by early Friday . {as, altostratus} this occurs Associated surface warm. Front will make only slow northward retreat To along or just north of. The Ohio river through late this afternoon . attendant cold front with. This system will spread east of the Mississippi river this evening And be. Situated from eastern Ohio to southern Mississippi by early Friday .. Model forecasts with this system have been less than consistent from. One run to the next . in addition Latest observational data. Indicates that it will be difficult for a substantial increase in. Low level moisture to take place near the surface low and warm front. Through late afternoon {as, altostratus} low level trajectories have ORIGINS in a. Relatively dry upstream air mass . latest high - RESOLUTION guidance is. Indiana, generally good agreement that convection is likely to initiate Indiana. A weakly unstable air mass near the surface low and warm front Over. Western Kentucky / southwestern IND Around 20Z . it also appears that this initial. Activity will most likely be DECOUPLED and rooted above the boundary. Layer . with time However Magnitude of forcing near the low and. Fronts should be sufficient to overcome inhibition and storms could. TAP TRULY surface - based parcels . this scenario is further supported. By the fact that strong surface heating is UNDERWAY across those. Areas that are most likely to favor storm development later this. Afternoon .. Over a relatively focused area near the surface low and immediately. East along the warm front Forecast level shear profiles appear. Very supportive of MESOCYCLONES / supercells with pronounced and. Strengthening speed shear in the storm updraft layer . initial. Activity across Kentucky / IND areas could pose a threat for large hail .. Tornado potential will be conditional on surface - based storm. Development and current indications are that even with surface - based. Development Lack of more significant low level moisture LENDS. Uncertainty to overall tornado potential at this time .. Storms should CONGEAL near the low and along advancing cold front. Through late evening with an increasing chance for scattered. Damaging wind events {as, altostratus} this evolution UNFOLDS .. Kentucky south to the Tennessee valley and eventually across the Appalachian. Crest . Broken quasi - linear squall line is anticipated ahead of the cold. Front moving across these areas late . while modest forcing along the. Front should force this convection Time of day and lack of greater. Instability would suggest limited severe potential with a few widely. Scattered wind / hail events possible through the remainder of the. Period .. .. CARBIN / HURLBUT .. 02/23/2012.

-Lyle WR1Q